Have you guys been following what’s going on with the London Book Fair?

A volcano that erupted in Iceland has whited-out British airspace, making it almost impossible for folks to get to the Book Fair from elsewhere in the world. Not only that. But it’s also making it impossible for the ones who made it to get home again.

Publisher’s Marketplace today quotes White House spokesman Robert Gibbs, upon being asked if the US would follow the example of the UK’s Royal Navy and try to bring citizens home by boat, as saying, “We’ve got some big ships, but that would be a pretty big ship.” The US Embassy estimates 40,000 Americans are stranded in London.

Here’s a tip while you’re waiting for release, guys—don’t go in any tea shops and ask for an “English muffin.” They’re pretty testy about that over there. (Instead, I highly recommend whiling away your time engaging Brits in conversation about Stonehenge so you can tell them, “We’ve got one of those, you know,” and show them Carhenge. I once sent a postcard of it to my friends in Wiltshire, and they kept it on their fridge for years.)

Publishers Weekly (PW) has released its list of 2009 best sellers compiled from information submitted to them by publishers. It would behoove you to check it out.

In particular, take a good, hard look at the author names in the top thirty hardback fiction sellers:

Dan Brown. John Grisham. Kathryn Stockett. James Patterson. Nicholas Sparks. John Grisham. Janet Evanovich. Stephenie Meyer. Stephen King. Michael Crichton. Patricia Cornwell. Sue Grafton. Patricia Cornwell. Alyson Noel. James Patterson. Clive Cussler with Dirk Cussler. Pat Conroy. James Patterson. David Baldacci. James Patterson. Vince Flynn. James Patterson. Nora Roberts. Dean Koontz. Charlaine Harris. Danielle Steel. David Baldacci. Robert Jordan and Brandon Sanderson. Clive Cussler. Mary Higgins Clark.

Look at them again:

• Dan Brown—long-time MEGAFAMOUS (puzzle thrillers, series protagonist, first 3 books mediocre sellers).
• John Grisham—long-time MEGAFAMOUS, 2 times on this list (political thrillers, politician-turned author, first book $5k advance).
• Kathryn Stockett (1960s retro-historical fiction with severe racial tension).
• James Patterson—long-time pretty darn famous, 5 times on this list (murder thrillers, ad salesman-turned-author, described by Stephen King as “a terrible writer.”)
• Nicholas Sparks—pretty darn famous (Christian romance).
• Janet Evanovich—pretty darn famous (bounty hunter thrillers, series protagonist).
• Stephenie Meyer—pretty darn famous (young adult paranormal romance, series protagonist, poor writing).
• Stephen King—long-time MEGAFAMOUS (horror/suspense thrillers, great writing).
• Michael Chrichton—long-time MEGAFAMOUS (technothrillers).
• Patricia Cornwell—pretty darn famous, 2 times on this list (crime thrillers, series protagonist).
• Sue Grafton—pretty darn famous (murder mysteries, series protagonist, decent writing).
• Alyson Noel—famous enough (young adult paranormal romance, series protagonist).
• Clive Cussler—pretty darn famous, 2 times on this list (technothrillers).
• Pat Conroy—long-time MEGAFAMOUS (psychological melodrama).
• David Baldacci—pretty darn famous, 2 times on this list (political thrillers).
• Vince Flynn—pretty famous (political thrillers, series protagonist).
• Nora Roberts—pretty darn famous (romance, over 100 novels written, founding member of Romance Writers of America).
• Dean Koontz—long-time MEGAFAMOUS (horror/suspense thrillers).
• Charlaine Harris—famous enough (paranormal mysteries, series protagonists).
• Danielle Steel—long-time MEGAFAMOUS (romance among rich folks).
• Robert Jordan (with Brandon Sanderson, because Jordan died)—famous enough (fantasy, series).
• Mary Higgins Clark—long-time MEGAFAMOUS (murder & romance among rich folks, poor writing).

Look at them in the context of top mass market paperback sellers:

John Grisham. James Patterson. James Patterson. Nora Roberts. Janet Evanovich. James Patterson. Patricia Cornwell. David Baldacci. David Baldacci. Debbie Macomber. Debbie Macomber. Iris Johansen. James Patterson. Patricia Cornwell. James Patterson. Dean Koontz. Charlaine Harris. Nicholas Sparks. Janet Evanovich. Catherine Coulter. Mary Higgins Clark. Charlaine Harris. Janet Evanovich. James Rollins. Iris Johansen.

Only four new names out of twenty-five, and all the rest straight off the hardback best sellers list (yes, twenty-one repeats!).

• Debbie Macomber—famous enough, 2 times on this list (romance).
• Iris Johansen—famous enough, 2 times on this list (crime, series protagonists).
• Catherine Coulter—been around forever (political thrillers, series protagonists).
• James Rollins—pretty darn famous (technothrillers, series protagonists).

What does this tell us, folks?

First and foremost, it tells us that the top 44 1/2 million books sold in the U.S. in 2009 were all written by the same tiny handful of twenty-six people. (Notice John Grisham, Stephen King, Vince Flynn, and Mary Higgins Clark all decline to report their sales. According to where they stand in the list, they can safely be assumed to account for another 4 million on an extremely conservative estimate, bringing that up to 48 1/2 million).

You read it right: that’s 26 writers responsible for the vast, vast bulk of what sells in this country, barely two dozen human beings, all of whom have been on this list many, many times before throughout careers spanning decades, the majority of them already established best sellers long before the publishing industry turned into the Mr. Hyde it so recently turned into.

Only one lonely little writer who has, apparently, never appeared on this list before. ONE.

Are these the luminaries of our era? The brilliant writers we all long to be? The greats who will go down in the American canon?

Well, at least one of them is heck of good when he wants to be: that’s Stephen King. I read The Shining when it came out back in the Cretaceous Period and thought, Wow, this guy’s a real writer!

So I’m inclined to believe him when he says James Patterson is a “terrible writer” who produces “dopey thrillers.” This opinion was echoed by Patrick Anderson of The Washington Post, who apparently called Patterson’s work “the absolute pits, the lowest common denominator of cynical, scuzzy, assembly-line writing.” Does lowest common denominator assembly-line writing sell? Patterson’s got five books on the top thirty hardback fiction list, more than twice as many as his next competitor. So, yeah, it looks like it sells.

I’ve read virtually none of the rest of these authors, except a tiny bit of Stephenie Meyer, whose Twilight series is being critiqued chapter-by-chapter by the Twilight Snarker; Sue Grafton, whom I analyzed when I began studying mystery structure; and one novel by Mary Higgins Clark, which made me pound my forehead on the floor until I saw stars. So I can’t comment on the quality of most of the writing, only assume that if an assembly-line-writing ad salesman can climb to the top of the publishing money machine then quality is not exactly the deciding factor in who wins this particular game.

What else does this list tell us?

Well, American readers really like series protagonists. They like reading about the same character over and over and over and over again. Does this character change and grow throughout the series? Not really. Otherwise they’d lose their ability to placate their legions of hypnotized readers. They’d have to age, make choices, settle down into lifestyles, eventually get old and start dealing with health issues. . .and it’d no longer be the same old story happening repeatedly forever.

Also, American readers REALLY like thrillers. Technothrillers, political thrillers, horror/suspense thrillers, puzzle thrillers, murder mystery and crime thrillers, even bounty hunter thrillers. Anything that makes your hair stand on end. Not only must it be the same old character and the same old story, but it must be the same old freaky story.

Give us a series of novels—not even well-written ones—about the same character going through the same kinds of thrillers over and over and over again, and we’ll mortgage the farm for ya. You bet.

If you can’t do that, then give us a series of novels—ditto—about the same character over an over and over again, only paranormal.

Or novels—ditto—about rich people getting laid.

Or ditto about ANYBODY getting laid. If they’re teens, pretend they’re not getting laid, they’re just having lunch off each other’s necks. (Hickies to die for.)

But even if you can do all that, you still have to make sure that before you try to give us anything you are already so FAMOUS we know not only your name, but where you’re from, where you live now, what you look like, and how to join your fan club.

And if you can’t do that. . .well, I’m sorry. I just hope you’re Kathryn Stockett.

Some people want to abuse you. Some people want to be abused.
—Annie Lennox

And now Colin Robinson of OR Books reveals a little something more about Amazon’s relationships to publishers in yesterday’s Huffington Post. You’ll see a parallel here between Robinson’s approach to the Amazon monopoly and the growing indie publishing industry’s approach to traditional publishing. “We have a simple message for publishers being menaced [by Amazon] in this way: You are in an abusive relationship.”

It’s a very catchy line, and it’s getting some very catchy coverage. Almost as good as the coverage of OR’s book, Going Rouge: Sarah Palin—An American Nightmare.

I like this guy.

Jason Pinter’s talking today over on the Huffington Post about publishing and social media.

He’s saying that’s where the industry is going on now: on Twitter, especially, where agents, acquisitions editors, and publishers can talk either one-on-one or en masse to readers and authors, bringing the audience down out of the stands and onto the playing field. Pinter points especially to John Sergent’s blog, which he started in response the Amazon-Macmillian fracas (only Jeff Bezos’ first public tantrum of the year). It’s an amazing idea, and it’s true that what we considered business-as-normal only three years ago is practically medieval today. But at the same time we’ve been talking here about where you find time to write. . .and there’s no question that the blogosphere is a major stumbling block (Twitter—my god! It eats your life).

So how do you balance it? DO you?

You’ve got to give Jeff Bezos credit for cojones, if not business savvy. The guy still hasn’t learned to stay off the trapeze without a net.

Motoko Rich of the NY Times and Christina Warren of Mashable both report this week that Amazon is back to swinging wildly from the highwire with a club, demanding a three-year contract from publishers and a guarantee no other bookseller gets better prices. For “other bookseller” you can, of course, read “Apple.” And Bezos isn’t asking nicely—he’s on the offensive.

Well, Apple has the same sentiments about pricing. Nobody wants to be underbid.

But Bezos appears oblivious to the bad fall he took only a few months ago pulling a high-profile stunt like this. Has he forgotten. . .um, he LOST?

And whether or not Amazon and Apple get the Mexican Standoff they want, guaranteeing neither wins the pricing game, that time-lock contract is one spangly costume blowing in the wind. A three-year lockdown? In this technological climate? Is Bezos joking?

Even in Silicon Valley, they don’t know where they’re going to be in three years. There’s Super-Top-Secret Classified stuff going on everywhere, NDAs popping buttons in all directions, deadly competition for marketshare with very real, very heavy millions of dollars hanging in the balance. Lock into three years of emerging technology with one company? I wouldn’t sign a that kind of contract locking me into a high-paying job.

Steve Jobs has five of the six big publishers onboard with him—Macmillan, Simon & Schuster, Hachette, HarperCollins, Penguin—and he’ll have Random House before he’s done. They’ve got the money, he’s got the time. He’s a wheeler-dealer. That’s what he does.

It’s not about bullying, Jeff. It’s about making someone an offer they can’t refuse. (Although it’d be nice if someone could teach Steve to pull his legs in and stop blocking the sidewalk in front of Palo Alto cafes, where he likes to do business on his cell phone.)

BUT. There is the possibility Bezos will succeed in splitting the market into Big Pubbers and Small Pubbers if he can offer small publishers deals Jobs isn’t interested in offering. Bezos is already courting the small pubs/self-pubs people. And, I have to say, that would be a fascinating development, reconfiguring Amazon’s rather tarnished persona as the “indie friend.” (Writers are indies, too, and they don’t necessarily appreciate seeing their already laughably-minimal profits chiseled even further just to promote Bezos’ stock.)

But are there enough nickels and dimes out there to balance the Ben Franklins? (See this article about The Long Tail by Chris Anderson in Wired in 2004—oddly retro for only five and a half years ago.)

And what about the reputation of a lot of what’s being self-published right now? Would Amazon come out looking like the champion of mom-&-pop businesses against the big box stores? Or just a franchise of cheap dimestore head shops?

Your little dose of reality, folks, from the people who know.

You’re not going to get rich as a writer. You’re not even going to get the $150,000 advance this heartbroken author got and spent on living expenses so many years ago.

You’re probably not going to make much of anything.

Write because you love it. Because you love this work.

Okay, I have to comment on this: Publisher’s Marketplace says today that, “Disney Book Group publisher Jonathan Yaged is leaving the company for the plum job of chief operating officer of HouseParty.com, a company that organizes modern-day Tupperware parties, PW reports.”

It’s more lucrative now to be the boss of Tupperware parties than a major publishing group?

“How dare they ignore the fact that I’m annoyed!” I like his attitude! Read Paul Hartsock’s analysis of the e-book shenanigans.

This piece on author’s rights by Victoria Strauss at Writer Beware has been around awhile, but a client forwarded it to me yesterday, and it’s well worth your time.

Author Jacqueline Lichtenberg has written a long and eye-opening post contradicting the standard publishing wisdom, “You determine your own success or failure by just how compelling your story is.” Lichtenberg is looking at TV shows as fiction, as well as books, for which I think she builds a good case. Pay attention to what she’s saying, folks! This is the keystone.

Her post, in turn, refers to an article by Andrew R. Malkin describing his career in publishing promotions.

And Malkin refers to Seth Godin. I mean, these days who doesn’t?

Dani Shapiro has written this for the LA Times on how the publishing industry has completely changed in the last twenty-five years, so that the dream of writing you probably grew up on is no longer the dream of publishing you think it is. I can’t tell you how important it is for you to understand this. I just heard yesterday from an award-winning fiction author with numerous published novels whose agent won’t even shop her latest novel around. This is not at all unusual. I know another award-winning fiction author with numerous published novels whose agent stopped shopping her novels several years ago. Now more than ever the only real point to writing is for the joy of it.

But, fortunately, the Bloggess found this, and I think all writers should watch it every single day before they start in.

MacMillan (including Farrar, Straus, & Giroux, St. Martin’s Press, and Henry Holt) is going head-to-head with Amazon over pricing, with the result that Apple’s sudden appearance with a more flexible price structure has tipped the scale. Although the “news” is that Amazon has pulled MacMillan books from its store, I’m guessing the actual scenario was more like MacMillan saying, “If you won’t play ball, Apple will,” and Amazon saying, “Don’t let the screen door hit you on your way out.” Bluff and counter-bluff, except MacMillan (so long as they’ve got Apple) can live without Amazon, and Amazon can’t live without MacMillan.

I feel for you, Jeff, but you lost this whole stand-off the minute Steve refused to back you up on it. And he’s your competition—he doesn’t have any reason to back you up. Even if you pretend it was always intended as just a “gesture,” you shouldn’t have tried to play it tough. You’re acting like a mob goon at a diplomat’s poker game. And the other players are all eyes wide-open.

On the other hand, Wired magazine has written an incredibly in-depth analysis of how Apple altered the landscape with the iPhone, which industry pundits are saying is what they’re doing now with the iPad—it’s just that they’re not marketing to the average user what’s truly important about it. Which is a polite way of saying, “They think you’re too dumb to understand.”

(What they really mean is these extremely important negotiations are going on behind closed doors, and Jobs is not about to get the buying public involved in them. It’s hard to bluff your opponent when the cards are jumping out of your hand shrieking, “This is what I’M going to do!” It doesn’t matter if your opponent can see more of your master-plan than your cards can. You’re risking a lot on your opponent agreeing with you that your cards don’t know the true score, particularly when it’s not in their best interests to do so, particularly when your cards might very well find out more than you expect and take offense at the insult to their intelligence. Again. I really don’t think Apple should be treating potential customers like they’re stupid enough to pony up $800 for a desktop—but then again, Jobs is a pretty darn successful marketer, and maybe what he knows that I don’t is that the bulk of them are.)

Hey, remember our conversation about workspaces? Well, get this. What do you suppose happens to it in an earthquake? Does it float in a tsunami? Would it become a snowball in an avalanche? Could you get one disguised as a giant peach?

And this is perhaps the most amazing news of all: did you know the Internet is made of cats? Wow, does that explain why mine are so tired they have to sleep all the time.

UPDATE: I have long suspected that everyone out there reads my blog before they come up with their own opinions, but now I know for sure:

Gizmodo.

John Scalzi (via my sys admin via Tim O’Reilly on Twitter).

John Scalzi again, with hot sauce.

Charlie Stross.

And someone’s recommended the Book Depository to replace Amazon, which we will add to our list of bookstores, except virtual.